Could Denny Hamlin still make the Chase For the Sprint Cup?

Now that it has been reported that Denny Hamlin will miss up to 6 weeks from injuries sustained from his crash at Auto Club Speedway, the question looms:  Is it possible for Denny to still make the Chase when he returns?

The top 10 in points make the Chase along with two wild cards.  The wild cards are the two drivers 11th-20th in points with the most wins as a tiebreaker.

Let's do some number crunching:

Denny currently has 145 points and sits 10th in the standings.  It's possible he could return sooner, but for this example let's say he doesn't.  Denny would return at race 12.  That gives him 14 races before the Chase to the Sprint Cup.  The maximum number of points a driver can earn per race is 48 (45 for the win, up to 3 bonus points for laps led).  That means over 14 races, the maximum number of points Denny could earn is 672.  That means that Denny could have a maximum of  817 points after Richmond.

Last season, going  into Richmond, site of the last race before the Chase, Jeff Burton was 20th in points with 609.  In 2011, 20th place Paul Menard had 657 points.  Since NASCAR changed their points standings after the 2010 season, those are the only two comparisons I have time to do.  If we average the two seasons, the 20th place driver went into Richmond with 633 points.  Taking the difference of the average  minus the current number of points:  633 (avg of 20th for 2011-12) - 145 (current number of points) =  488 points.  Hamlin would have to earn at least 488 points over 13 races leading to Richmond to even have a chance at making the Chase.  That equates to 37.5 points per race.  That means Hamlin could finish no worse than 6th in every race prior to Richmond to reach 20th in points. 

Hamlin then would have to finish high enough at Richmond to make the Chase.  In 2012, Jamie McMurray was 20th in points with 640 after Richmond.  In 2011, Marcos Ambrose was 20th with 673.  Averaging those two seasons, a driver would need 657 points to be 20th in the standings.  That would equate to a finish of 25th or better at Richmond.   Hamlin would also need to have enough wins for the tiebreaker.

Obviously that is a very difficult task to achieve. If he is given the medical clearance to do so, the sooner Hamlin can get back in the race car, even if to run only 1-2 laps and turn the car over to another driver, the better his chances. Obviously Joe Gibbs Racing would not want to put Hamlin's health and safety at risk, so I doubt he returns until doctors clear him completely.  The most important thing is for Hamlin to get healthy and return to NASCAR when he's ready and has been given medical clearance to do so.


Hamlin has made the Chase every year he's competed full time in the Sprint Cup Series.  It would be quite an accomplishment if he could make it this year. 

Auto Club 400 reactions

First, my prayers are with Denny Hamlin.  That looked like a hard hit.

I was really excited as both Hamlin and Joey Logano came off turn two side by side for the win.  Then they got to turn 3 and all hell broke loose.  I've watched the replays a few times.  I honestly think it was a racing accident.  Both guys were fighting hard for the win.  Since there's no in-car view of Joey's hands, we have no idea if he turned right on purpose or if he pushed up.  Unfortunately Denny got the worst end of the deal.  A destroyed car, lost 23 positions, and ended up in the hospital.  As of right now the only thing I've heard is he's awake and alert. 

I think Joey's comment, "He deserved what he got" was classless however.   Nobody wants to see any driver get hurt during a race.  I'm not a Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, or Dale Jr fan, but I don't want them to get hurt. There's just something to be said about having class.  I lost a lot of respect for Joey today.

Then Tony Stewart goes after Logano, a few punches thrown, and then has the interview of the year.  Tony is never one to hold back when it comes to interviews.  Me thinks he will be at least $100,000 poorer come Tuesday.  NASCAR is going to probably come down hard on him, but I bet it will be similar to the fines Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer had last year at Phoenix.  And something tells me Tony and Joey won't be exchanging Christmas cards this year.

What kills me is these two incidents took away from what was probably the best race of the year.  What normally is a snoozefest was really exciting.  There was a lot of passing, plenty of action, and things got crazy in the last 20 laps.  I read that there were 41 green flag passes for the lead.  Insane.  Either the car or the track was really really improved over previous years.  It's too bad that the racing got lost in these incidents.

NASCAR Las Vegas: Post Race Reaction

The Kobalt Tools 400 was run today at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.  It was the 3rd race of the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season.  With qualifying rained out, nobody really knew what to expect.

The first half of the race was a snoozer.  There wasn't a lot of action and the field got really strung out.  Once again, the new cars did not do as they promised - there wasn't a lot of close racing.

That all changed towards the end.

Different pit strategies put good cars in the middle of the pack, and average to better than average cars up front.  The problem was that tires were too good - teams could go at least 2 fuel runs on just changing right side tires.

Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne put on a great show at the end.  Kenseth held off Kahne for the win.  It was closer than anybody had run all race.

I'm not ready to give up in the Gen 6 car, but I'm not that impressed either.  The new car was supposed to help tracks like Vegas, and it's clear that we're still not there.  There is still work to be done.

Matt has run well in all three races this season, but has been plagued with different mechanical issues.  He could easily have two wins on his resume, as he had a great car in the Daytona 500.

Bristol is next week.  I can't wait to see how that turns out.

Denny Hamlin's fine

NASCAR fined Denny Hamlin $25,000 yesterday for comments he made regarding the new "Gen 6" cars after the Sprint Cup race at Phoenix.  Denny basically said the new car was no better than the previous generation, dubbed the "CoT".

Denny has repeatedly said he has done nothing wrong and is refusing to pay the fine.  he has since appealed and we are waiting for the appeals process to continue.

And I applaud him.

First, I must say that I am a Denny Hamlin fan.  I have been since he entered NASCAR.  He's from Virginia, so he's a somewhat local driver to me.  We're also about the same age.  That being said, it does not change my opinion.  If it were Jeff Gordon or Jimmie Johnson or Kurt Busch that made the same comments, I would have the same reaction to them getting fined.  It's ridiculous.

NASCAR started a policy a few seasons ago called "boys, have at it."  Basically, drivers were told to settle their differences on the track.  Yet a driver is not allowed to speak their mind?  What makes it even more ironic, NASCAR announced this week that the NRA was sponsoring a race in Texas.  So NASCAR is endorsing 2nd amendment rights, but telling drivers to not execute their first amendment ones?

I don't like where this is going.  It's going to either cause drivers to stop speaking to the media, or creating zombie-like interviews.  I honestly would not blame Denny if he did not give any more interviews for the remainder of the season.

Wouldn't it be funny if he won the championship and didn't say anything at the awards banquet?  Then again, he'd probably get fined for that too.

NASCAR got this one wrong, plain and simple.